#100

This is my 100^th post.  This is the imaginary finish line that I laid for myself several months ago.  Moving into 2016 I do not plan on continuing to post regularly on the movement.  Maybe this flies in the face of everything that I am about to lay out, but I feel like I have met a challenge, “had an experience”, and am ready to remove posting on this blog from my weekly to-do list.  When I look into my crystal ball: 2016 will entail finishing my last season with NUT, studying for the CPA exam, trying to move to Minneapolis, and writing things unrelated to ultimate.

Crossing the 100 posts threshold feels good; it feels like I have accomplished something, I feel like this is a big deal, and as I plan on putting this blog on ice I want to talk about how great I am.  I started this blog for a few reasons:

·         I am a bad writer and I want to be a good writer.

·         I talk to myself, a lot.  Talking to myself tends to diverge into me arguing with myself.

·         I believe in things strongly, but when challenged by someone externally I am often extremely disappointed in how flimsy my reasoning is or how little of the big picture I have considered.

With a blog I could practice writing, get my arguments down on paper, and really flesh out some of thoughts that I had. 

Looking through the history of this blog it is apparent that it took some time to get into a groove.  I started the blog in March of 2012, the first post was made in March of 2013.  I managed to put up 11 posts in 2013 and 5 in 2014.  How many blogs exist where the author writes a post on day 1 of year 1 and says, “Hey so pumped to start this blog check back for all my great thoughts” and then the next post is on day 12 of year 2 and it says “LOL totally forgot about this blog, I’ll be posting more soon LOL” and then they never post again?  Tons, there are tons of those blogs in the world and mine had become one of them.

I would write a paragraph, reread it, decide it didn’t make any sense and then I’d delete it.  I would write an entire blog post, decide I didn’t have the guts to post it and then delete it.  Then I listened to a podcast with Bill Simmons and Katie Nolan, in their discussion Katie talks about how difficult it is to get a sports journalism career started.  Her strategy was to post on her blog twice a day every day, she didn’t have a job but she was going to write something, write anything, and post it as if it were her job.  This resonated with me.  The theory of adding an inch, of doing something regularly, of just focusing and banging it out were things I already believed in.  What really grabbed my attention was Katie’s perception of her own writing, they aren’t all perfect, not every article is a masterpiece, and she doesn’t even like some of the articles that she has written.  She hit the publish button because she convinced herself that she had to. 

I decided to run with this idea.  I would set writing goals – write x posts this week – and I would hold to them as if I was getting paid.  The result is here.  Some of these posts I don’t even agree with, grammar errors are everywhere, and contradictions can be found in articles that were written a week apart.  There are many times when I was really grasping for straws just trying to say something so I could meet the deadline.  However, I am happy that I kept hitting the “publish” button.  It is funny to me that the posts I think are great, no one ever talks to me about, but the posts I think are weak everyone wants to talk about.  Zubair told this happens because when I write well I cover the bases and there is nothing more to say, but when I write poorly there is space to debate and gaps to be filled in with discussion - obvious with the value of hindsight.

Der Berggeist:

This is the image associated with the blog.  This is called “Der Berggeist”.   Before setting off on the return journey to England, JRR Tolkien bought some picture postcards. Among them was a reproduction of Der Berggeist.  Tolkien preserved this postcard carefully, and long afterwards he wrote on the paper cover in which he kept it: 'Origin of Gandalf'."  When you click on the image it links you to Gandalf battling the Balrog.

Just as the image inspired Tolkien, I wanted the blog to inspire me to battle the shadows of my thoughts and challenge the fires of my beliefs.

The Movement:

We need momentum to be motivated, through motivation we build momentum which further feeds our motivation.  This positive feedback cycle of “mo” can carry you far, but what do you do when you have no “mo”?  How do you enter the cycle when you are devoid of motivation and momentum?  Well, you need to start a movement.

Hindsight Bias

Hindsight bias is the inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite little or no objective basis for predicting it.

In Trevor Noah’s stand-up “African American” he jokes about the perception of Obama’s campaign before he won – he had no chance against Hillary – and the perception of Obama’s campaign after he won – his victory was inevtibale.

Seahawks fans are absolutely convinced that Pete Carroll lost the superbowl by not giving the ball to Lynch, but the outrage came after the game was over.  We all ignore that Seattle had time for a pass and two runs, that Wilson’s throw was the 109^th throw from the 1-yard line in the 2014-2015 season and the first to be picked off, and we ignore that Marshawn Lynch isn’t anything special inside the 1 yard line.  Among 39 running backs with at least 10 carries from the 1-yard line in the past five seasons, Marshawn Lynch ranks number 30 at 45%.

Before NUT chose Champe to be captain, there was a lot of discussion about how he would be a terrible captain.  After his captaincy wrapped it feels obvious that he should’ve been captain the whole time.

Take an imaginary game.  Its universe point and AlphaMan23 drops an incut.  If AlphaMan23’s team loses, you can blame him for dropping that pass, or blame the coach for putting him in on that point, or blame the thrower for something.  Suddenly everyone wants to change everything.  If AlphaMan23’s team wins, everyone just skirts over the drop and talks about how we were the better team and would win that game 9 times out of 10.  Suddenly the team doesn’t think working on catching is very important, because “hey we won the game!”  Suddenly the result has a massive impact on how your team moves forward.  This is dangerous territory, if you lose there is a desire to “fix” things or overhaul the plan, if you win there is no motivation to “improve”.  Hindsight bias is real, and an emphasis on results allows it to run rampant and distract your team from what they can control.  A process oriented program is the answer.  Keep the team focused on what they can control, have a short list of what you want to be good at, build the experience level of the entire roster, have a plan that steps through the list that you’ve identified as critical, and believe in each other always until the very end of the age.

Player Lock: Drag'N Thrust v. Mixtape - 1st Half

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxFBdvCJKbI

Austin Lien is the captain of Drag’n Thrust and a total boss. 

5:13 – First touch, first turn, an auspicious start for this project.  Austin has a great backhand, he gets very low on his releases and uses his legs extremely well.  Right off of the pull he goes for the break and sends it too high for the receiver.

10:04 – Austin “shows” the mark a backhand, while setting his feet up for the forehand around.  When he goes for the forehand he is able to do so very quickly.  Note how is mark is moving toward the backhand in frame 1, then is off balance for the forehand in frame two.

Austin does this with his back foot a lot.  Rather than stepping to challenge the invert he will just show the disc to the invert lane and have his back foot inch towards the around.  However, note the orientation of his feet in the first frame, when he does want to challenge the invert lane all he needs to do is step forward - no twisting motions or pivoting across his body, he is primed for a straight forward lunge.

10:50 – Austin is involved in another turnover.  He sets up super close to the disc and seems to not realize that he has a defender filling behind him.  Thrower panics and throws a crazy throw.

11:40 – Backhand to no one.  He’s really proving something here.

23:24 – We get our first taste of Austin making a good cut.

Sets up

Shin angle

Open

51:50 – another good cut

Sets up

Shin angle

Open

54:54 – Wild blade for a score.

58:26 – Here’s a fun jump ball.  Even though the disc falls way out of bounds Austin goes from being behind:

To getting in front

First half:

Touches – 16

Turns – 2

Ds – 0

Goals – 0

Assists - 2

Looking for Something Specific: Brute v. Riot - 1st Half

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULzQS2rv34s

“@100percentBS is proving how smart and active marks can win games” – George Stubbs

What is George talking about?  Let’s look at every Riot turnover and think about what the mark did.

Points 1-5:

Riot 3 – Brute Squad 1

Out of the gate riot just blitzes past Brute Squad, there is almost a feel that Riot is going to blow out Brute.  So far Riot has:

1.      Scored in 20 seconds

2.      Got an early turnover and finished by breaking the mark

3.      Brute scored in four passes

4.      Riot scored in 20 seconds

5.      Brute grinds

Not a lot of marks to look at in this part of the game.

Point 6:

14:29 is Riot’s first turnover.  The mark gets there late, very late.  Qxhna (I think it’s Qxhna) holds this disc for 9 real life seconds before trying to break an around downfield.  The mark is pretty flat, which probably tempts Qxhna into going around.  A downfield defender runs through the D.

Point 7:

18:30 is Riot’s second turnover.  The mark is flat, and it feels like they are shading slightly toward a forehand force.  Riot goes for the backhand around and gets poached by a downfield defender. 

19:26 is Riot’s third turnover.  The mark comes in flat and gets very close to Dom as she throws.  It comes out of Dom’s hand poorly and turns over too early.

21:57 is Riot’s fourth turnover.  This is an incut that turns into a huck.  The mark closes quickly and is very close to Dom when she throws.  The pressure from the mark porbably contributes to Dom throwing this one out of bounds.  Again the mark is pretty flat.

Point 8:

24:22 is Riot’s fifth turnover.  This is just a drop.

Point 9:

26:14 is Riot’s sixth turnover.  At this point I think I am seeing what George is talking about.  The mark is flat, she is attempting to pressure throws on both the forehand and the backhand side, and she is using her feet to move rather than leaning over.  Rohre forces a really bad forehand huck that falls maybe 20 yards short.

Brute is on a 5-0 running, suddenly it feels like Brute is going to run away with this.

Point 10:

29:34 is Riot’s seventh turnover.  After taking a stall to set up, Magon closes in very tight on the mark. She is flat and moving her feet, the pressure on the mark makes the reset difficult and Riot ends up punting.

30:19 is Riot’s eighth turnover.  I am not in Rohre’s head, but I imagine she is trying to make something happen and ends up throwing a bad huck.  The mark barely gets set on this turnover.

31:40 is Riot’s ninth turnover.  Mark is flat, in an athletic position, and moving her feet in order to move rather than lunging and stumbling around.  But Rohre does nothing to move the mark; she stares at a forceside dump and then takes a hammer to the endzone, all without challenging the mark.

Point 11:

34:45 is Riot’s tenth turnover.  The mark never gets there, but Qxhna still throws it out of bounds.

Brute takes half 8-3.

So what is an active mark?  In general Brute is using a flat mark against Riot.  They are using their feet to move around and are getting very close to the thrower.  When the thrower goes either forehand or backhand they pressure it, but do so without “selling out” and lunging into the thrower.  Brute is also coupling this with very close defense on the resets.  When Riot has the disc there is a mark in their face, and a defender very close to their reset option, this results in some uncomfortable situations for Riot and some extra possessions for Brute.

Narrative Format: Machine v Revolver - 1st Half

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4BoW_eM5yY

Point 1:

Machine Turnover – 6:30 – Wideside to wideside hammer

Revolver Break – 8:07 – Middle to Middle huck

Machine was at their best when the handlers got to the wide sideline and their cutters were able to cascade down field toward the trap sideline.  After the initial cascade Machine’s handlers are able to get the disc back to the wide side, but at this point their cutters have “run out” of space to cascade so they need to transition into something else in order to deal with the smaller space.

Revolver gets the disc and uses a vert stack.  They are able to maintain tons of space around the disc, their resets look easy and they have no fear of losing yards.  Eventually they get a good matchup going away (revolver cutter on a machine handler).

Point 2:

Machine Turnover – 9:50 – Trapside to Middle Huck

Revolver Break – 10:35 – Middle to Middle dump

Machine comes out in a side stack and runs a flood.  They struggle to find their cutters and up taking a shot.

Revolver moves quickly with a vert stack and hits a middle to middle huck that gets dinked for a score.

Point 3:

Machine score – 14:10 – Trapside to wideside cross field shot

Machine sets up with three handlers back, their third offensive look of the game.  Machine is very patient on this point.  Everyone touches the disc, most people touch it more than once, and they grind a lot of unders and swings until Bob is able to create something.

Point 4:

Revolver score – 15:55 – Trapside to middle huck

Revolver uses a vert stack.  Revolver holds the center pass for a while as Machine covers the first cut (or 2 it’s hard to see from the camera angle).  Eventually they find an incut and cascade to the trapside.  The cascade yields power position and Revolver finds a handler striking deep.  This is the second time Revolver has taken a Machine handler deep.

This is the first game to three:  Revolver 3 – Machine 1.

Impressions so far: 

• Neither team runs a lot of uplines. 
• Revolver is hitting the dirt a lot more than Machine is. 
• Machine has tried 2 “tough throws” and Revolver has tried zero.

Point 5:

Machine Score – 17:23 – Middle to Trapside huck

Machine uses three back again.  First easy possession for Machine, incut from the edge is wide open and the huck continue is wide open.

Point 6:

Revolver Score – 19:38 – Middle to Trapside Huck

Revolver comes out with three back.  Machine is poaching heavily off the handlers.  This is the first time Revolver has to complete a lot of passes.  The poach forces them to use the full width of the field, but they are patient and eventually something opens up.

Point 7:

Machine Score – 21:10 – Wideside to wideside huck.

Machine comes out in a vert stack, revolver poaching massively on the center handler; Matzuka uses this to get an easy pass to the wide side and then bombs it deep.  Machine finishes in the endzone set.

Point 8:

Revolver Score – 23:25 – Middle to wideside incut

Revolver comes out with three back, Machine is poaching the handlers again.  At the start of the possession Machine is switching downfield and Revolver gets two easy incuts to chew up yards.  Machine is forcing backhand, but Revolver shows they are very good at throwing forehand arounds.  Revolver has no problem moving laterally, their “scoring move” starts on the wide side, chisels toward the trapside, and then cuts back to the wide side.

Point 9:

Machine score – 25:25 – Wideside to trapside cross field shot

Machine comes out in a vert stack again.  It’s a very loose vert, at times it feels like Bob is just standing in the middle of the field while four people cut in circles around him.  Machine gets in a jam, but BMW breaks them out of it by hitting an inside flick to the middle, once centered Revolver scrambles to reset their defense and Machine takes advantage by advancing the disc.  This is the second time Bob creates takes a cross field flick. 

This is the end of the second game to three:  Revolver 2 (5) – Machine 3 (4).

Impressions so far:

• Machine is more willing to change up their defense than Revolver.  They have tried switching, poaching, and varying the force.
• Both teams are very good at throwing arounds.  The only uplines I have seen have come out of flow.  Is this because the defenders are better or the offenses are valuing lateral movement more?

Point 10:

Revolver Turn – 27:15 - Trapside to trapside huck

Machine Turn – 27:45 – Trapside to trapside huck

Revolver Score – 25:15 – Middle to trapside huck

Revolver uses two back again.  Machine D gets their first chance of the game here and completes zero passes as they test Beau on a jump ball.  The backhand force is interesting because Ashlin botched his, but Cassidy nailed his.  Revolver can throw the forehand around and hit the high release backhand – so the force isn’t doing anything in a “possession” sense.  It has yielded them a turn on a huck attempt, I guess you have to do something.

Point 11:

Machine Turn – 32:04 – Trapside to middle around

Revolver Trun – 33:57 - wideside to wideside huck

Machine Score- 35:30 – Middle to wideside blade

Machine uses three back.  Revolver puts a three man cup on the field, probably trying to slow down Machine’s deep game.  Machine is able to use low backhand around to get past the cup, create motion, and keep the stall low, unfortunately they eventually botch one of these.

Revolver gets nothing out of their timeout.

Bob creates for this score.

Point 12:

Revolver Score – 37:15 – Middle to middle incut

Revolver comes out with 3 back.  Machine is uses a 2-4-1 with a lot of switching in the middle of the field, the front two are forcing toward the middle of the field.  After a set number of passes Machine switches out of this set, once they are in man Revolver goes up field quickly, completing another backhand huck.

Point 13:

Machine Turn – 40:50 – Middle to wideside incut

Revolver Turn – 42:08 – Trapside to trapside huck

Machine Score – 42:25 – Trap to trap upline

Machine comes out with 2 handlers back.  The machine cutters end up behind the disc and the handlers end up downfield, this creates a snapshot that highlights the difference in skill set between these two groups.  The cutters are able to get open and create more space with their legs than the handlers were able to do.  The tradeoff being the cutters aren’t as good at creating with their throws and end up botching a tough shot.

Revolver was extremely patient with their possession, and then someone got impatient and took a bad shot.

Machine fastbreaks and Revolver never recovers.

Point 14:

Revolver score – 46:.0 – Middle to Middle incut

Revolver uses a sidestack.  Machine has stacked this DLine trying to get a break.  Machine seems to go straight man here, but with the added athleticism from the OLine put a lot of pressure on Revolver, but Revolver’s throws get them through.

This ends the first half Revolver 8 – Machine 6

Impressions:

• Machine relies on their throwers to do more than Revolver does.  Bob and Matzuka throw a lot of scoobers/blades/hammers to move the disc and put scores away, it feels like it is harder for Machine to move the disc than it is for Revolver.

MacroView: (Machine v. Ring)

Mah-sheen Oline	Touches	Turnovers	Result
Point 1	15	0	Goal
Point 2	4	0	Goal
Point 3	14	3	Broken
Point 4	15	0	Goal
Point 5	22	1	Goal
Point 6	11	1	Broken
Point 7	11	0	Goal
Point 8	5	0	Goal
Point 9	11	1	Goal
Point 10	3	0	Goal
Point 11	5	0	Goal
Point 12	5	1	Goal
Point 13	8	0	Goal
Point 14	15	0	Goal
Sum:	144	7	15
Turns/Touch	5%
Broken/Turn	0.286

Ring Oline	Touches	Turnovers	Result
Point 1	2	0	Goal
Point 2	5	0	Goal
Point 3	4	1	Broken
Point 4	13	0	Goal
Point 5	10	0	Goal
Point 6	5	0	Goal
Point 7	12	1	Goal
Point 8	5	0	Goal
Point 9	2	0	Goal
Point 10	11	0	Goal
Point 11	8	2	Broken
Point 12	8	0	Goal
Point 13	4	1	Broken
Point 14	10	0	Goal
Point 15	7	0	Goal
Sum	106	5	14
Turns/Touch	5%
Broken/Turn	0.60