Hindsight Bias

Hindsight bias is the inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite little or no objective basis for predicting it.

In Trevor Noah’s stand-up “African American” he jokes about the perception of Obama’s campaign before he won – he had no chance against Hillary – and the perception of Obama’s campaign after he won – his victory was inevtibale.

Seahawks fans are absolutely convinced that Pete Carroll lost the superbowl by not giving the ball to Lynch, but the outrage came after the game was over.  We all ignore that Seattle had time for a pass and two runs, that Wilson’s throw was the 109^th throw from the 1-yard line in the 2014-2015 season and the first to be picked off, and we ignore that Marshawn Lynch isn’t anything special inside the 1 yard line.  Among 39 running backs with at least 10 carries from the 1-yard line in the past five seasons, Marshawn Lynch ranks number 30 at 45%.

Before NUT chose Champe to be captain, there was a lot of discussion about how he would be a terrible captain.  After his captaincy wrapped it feels obvious that he should’ve been captain the whole time.

Take an imaginary game.  Its universe point and AlphaMan23 drops an incut.  If AlphaMan23’s team loses, you can blame him for dropping that pass, or blame the coach for putting him in on that point, or blame the thrower for something.  Suddenly everyone wants to change everything.  If AlphaMan23’s team wins, everyone just skirts over the drop and talks about how we were the better team and would win that game 9 times out of 10.  Suddenly the team doesn’t think working on catching is very important, because “hey we won the game!”  Suddenly the result has a massive impact on how your team moves forward.  This is dangerous territory, if you lose there is a desire to “fix” things or overhaul the plan, if you win there is no motivation to “improve”.  Hindsight bias is real, and an emphasis on results allows it to run rampant and distract your team from what they can control.  A process oriented program is the answer.  Keep the team focused on what they can control, have a short list of what you want to be good at, build the experience level of the entire roster, have a plan that steps through the list that you’ve identified as critical, and believe in each other always until the very end of the age.